Marco Luciano is the obvious choice to be the Giants opening-day shortstop. Right?
As of this writing, there are five San Francisco Giants games left in the regular season. These five games will not change your mind about anything. Win five, lose five, walk-offs or error-fests, doesn’t matter. You’ve already made up your mind about the 2023 Giants, and you’ll take those thoughts into the offseason.
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However, the most important offseason decision the Giants can make, aside from signing Shohei Ohtani, can still benefit from another couple games. Every last scrap of information helps. And it’s a complicated situation. Lotta ins, lotta outs.
Marco Luciano, who turned 22 years old earlier this month, is the future of the franchise. At least, that’s the idea. Just because one has been anointed the future of the franchise doesn’t mean they’ll actually fulfill that destiny. Have some fun and remember some guys on this list of top-100 prospects. The highest-ranked infielder on there was Ian Stewart; the lowest-ranked infielder was Ian Kinsler. The spectrum is wide, vast and uncaring.
Still, Luciano hasn’t done much to dissuade you or the Giants of the idea that his time is now. (Note: this was written before Luciano forgot how many outs there were in last night’s third inning. Nevertheless…) On Monday night, manager Gabe Kapler described his defense as “nearly flawless” in response to Baggs’ question about this play:
Luciano’s throw is what makes the play — Tyler Fitzgerald’s shovel might have had a millisecond of extra hangtime, which had to be made up on the back end of the double play against a very speedy runner. Luciano made it look easy, and if you’re thinking, “Yeah, it looked easy because it was a routine play,” we’ll agree to disagree, but that also helps the point I’m trying to make. You absolutely don’t want to notice a rookie shortstop there for the wrong reasons.
Luciano was also a part of the comeback in the bottom half of that inning, and he did it in an extraordinarily satisfying way: He hit a ball that was thrown down the middle of the plate, which has been a frustrating bugaboo for the Giants this year, for some reason.
It was a 99 mph fastball, the kind that can get batters to miss even if the location is poor, but Luciano took it the other way at 99.5 mph. It’s the kind of swing that you might have to get used to. Luciano’s 31 plate appearances so far represent 0.5 percent of the Giants’ total plate appearances this season, but he has three of the top-12 exit velocities for the Giants on hits to the opposite field this season. That one in the video up there isn’t even one of them.
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While Luciano isn’t exactly a burner, he’s athletic and can still run the bases well. So what we have here is a player who can …
• Hit the ball harder than most of the current Giants
• Use the opposite field better than most of the current Giants
• Is more athletic than most of the current Giants
• Fills you with more hope than most of the current Giants
• Looks to be more than passable at a position in which the Giants should have a specific need this offseason
There are 184 days between now and Opening Day, and the question before you is this: Is there any point to assuming Luciano won’t be the starter at short? Would the Giants benefit from even pretending they’re not giving Luciano the job?
Because it’s not as if Luciano is the perfect prospect, a guaranteed success without peer. He still has a lot of swing and miss in his bat, even as he’s worked hard (and successfully) to be more patient at the plate. He’s missed all sorts of time with various injuries over the last two seasons, which is a major concern when it comes to putting all of your positional eggs into one basket. And while he’s been steady at shortstop, he’ll likely never be the kind of defender who will add plus-plus value even if he’s not hitting.
Let’s look at the other options, then.
Outside help
Remember that one year, where it looked like Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager and Javier Báez and Carlos Correa and Trevor Story were going to be free agents? The Mets signed Lindor before he got to the open market, but it looked like a historic collection of free agents at one position.
This offseason is … not that. Here are all of the free agents listed as shortstops on MLB Trade Rumors who will be free agents, with their age next season and their WAR this season:
Elvis Andrus, 35, 0.6 WAR
Amed Rosario, 28, 0.5 WAR
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 29, 0.2 WAR
Nick Ahmed, 34, -0.1 WAR
Paul DeJong, 30, -0.5 WAR
Brandon Crawford, 37, -1.1 WAR
Tim Anderson, 30, -1.8 WAR
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The most palatable of the bunch is Rosario because of his age and offensive ceiling, but his glove is also the most questionable. Which means you’re getting all of the risks of a commitment to Luciano, without the high ceiling and fan-friendly buzz.
Even if the Giants take a chance on someone like Anderson (who hit .318 over 1,565 at-bats and four seasons from 2019-22, remember) to be a placeholder until Luciano is 100 percent, definitely, no-foolin’ ready, it’s hard to imagine that situation being too attractive to anyone but the most desperate of veterans. My guess is that Anderson will have more than one suitor, and there’s a non-zero chance that the White Sox exercise his team option.
So, fine, the Giants aren’t getting a free-agent shortstop to be the unquestioned starter over Luciano. But there’s always the potential for a trade. With that in mind, here’s a list of all the players who received at least 25 percent of their playing time at short over the last two seasons, ranked by WAR. You have to go down to the 18th spot to find a shortstop the Giants would have a shot of acquiring, and that’s Amed Rosario. Even if you’re suddenly more impressed by him, that cumulative WAR is heavily buoyed by an outlier dWAR season in 2022 that didn’t match the eye test.
I’ll bet the Red Sox would listen to any inquiries for Story, who is still owed $100 million and has hit .224 for them over two injury-marred seasons. The Giants could also trade or sign for a player we’re not thinking about, someone on the fringes of the majors, like they’ve done before with Donovan Walton and Mark Mathias.
Or the Giants could just hand the job to their top position-player prospect, who sure seems like he belongs in the majors. This is known in baseball circles as Occam’s 26-Man Roster.
Inside help
Thairo Estrada could help here, which could allow for a move to get a veteran second baseman with a little more cost certainty, like Whit Merrifield. Max Muncy has experience at the position, so maybe the Giants could punt defense to focus on those sweet, sweet dingers. What’s the worst that could happen, that the universe balances out the Jason Schmidt signing and saddles the Giants with an ex-Dodger on a long-term contract for a player who doesn’t contribute at all? I’d like to see the universe try.
Moving Estrada off second base seems like a bad idea, though, considering that experience and stability has made him one of the better defensive second basemen in baseball, if not the best. There could be a spot for Tyler Fitzgerald or Casey Schmitt at shortstop, depending on what happens in spring training, but they also come with a lot of the same risks as Luciano with a fraction of the upside.
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It’s also possible that the Giants could use Luciano at third, or even the outfield, which would free them to acquire an available player to be the perfect middle-infield fit. That is, again, a player who doesn’t really exist, whether internally or externally.
Or the Giants could just hand the job to their top position-player prospect, who sure seems like he belongs in the majors.
Yeah, it’s hard to see how it’s not Luciano from here
It’s rare for a team to announce in September or October that a rookie is the guaranteed starter the following season. Gotta keep them youngsters hungry. But after looking at all the other options, from both inside and outside of the organization, I’m not sure what the value is of pretending there’s another option. It’s so obvious that Luciano should be the everyday shortstop next season, that the Giants should steer clear of lefty-swinging shortstops, just to remove the temptation to platoon him.
The only reason to not pencil a healthy Luciano in as the starting shortstop on Opening Day is if Shohei Ohtani demands to play shortstop as a condition of his new contract. Let him cook out there, bum elbow and all.
There are times when being clever can help. This is not one of them. The Giants will have a lot to worry about next season. They don’t need to add to those worries. Get Dave Wasserman to send the tweet. We’ve seen enough. It’s easy to think that the Giants have, too.
(Top photo of Luciano turning a double play: Sergio Estrada / USA Today)
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