Would Arch Manning decommit from Texas? Respect for TCU? Ask the Texpert
Nearly two-thirds of the way through the season, there are still more questions than answers for most of the teams in Texas. I’ll answer a few of yours in this week’s edition of Ask the Texpert.
(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)
Sam, you and The Athletic have done a great job covering Arch Manning and his recruiting process with Texas. If Texas drops the last four games, do you see Arch decommitting? Would Sark be let go at that point? — William M.
I can’t see any of those scenarios happening. On Friday, The Athletic confirmed that Manning plans to enroll early at Texas and to arrive on campus in January. And despite last week’s road loss to Oklahoma State, this Texas team is better than last season, and I don’t foresee the Longhorns losing out. It’s much more likely they end up around 8-4 or 7-5.
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Even if Texas struggles down the stretch, I don’t see Manning decommitting. He and his family took a deliberate, thorough approach to his recruitment before he issued a commitment. The relationships he built with Steve Sarkisian and AJ Milwee were vital. It’s hard to believe he would throw that away because Texas hits a rough patch. Heck, the Longhorns were 5-7 last season, and he committed this summer before seeing them play a down. A coaching change is the only thing that I could see impacting his decision.
So let’s entertain your hypothetical. If Texas finishes 5-7 again, would that prompt a move? Possibly. But at that point, it becomes a chicken-egg scenario. Does Sarkisian get the benefit of the doubt because Manning and the rest of a stellar recruiting class, currently ranked sixth in the 247Sports Composite, are on the way? Maybe.
Recruiting is often the canary in the coal mine. When top prospects start decommitting, that impacts how a coach is viewed by fans and administration. When Quinn Ewers decommitted and Texas didn’t land Tommy and James Brockermeyer in 2020, it contributed to Tom Herman’s eventual demise. If Manning stays solid, which I believe he will, Sarkisian should be safe going into 2023.
Because Texas has been through so much coaching turnover in the post-Mack Brown era, the Longhorns don’t want to make a change after just two seasons under Sarkisian. They need one more win to get to a bowl, and I think they’ll get it.
What will it take for TCU to get some respect? The Frogs just beat four ranked (at the time) teams in a row. They own the third best win (after Tennessee > Bama and UGA > Oregon. — Jeffrey C., Austin
How much respect does TCU really deserve? In three of its last four games, it has injured the opposing team’s starting QB. In the one outlier, OSU’s QB was already injured going into that game (he did not practice the week before). — Troy O., Fort Worth
A No. 7 ranking is pretty healthy respect. If the Horned Frogs hover around there when the College Football Playoff rankings debut next week, they can play their way into the top four by season’s end.
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The ranked wins are nice, but Oklahoma is clearly not a Top 25 team and Kansas has stumbled after Jalon Daniels’ injury. The selection committee will put more emphasis on what those teams are at present than what they were when TCU played them. The quarterback injuries are important context because the committee will weigh those, too.
Four straight @AP_Top25 wins 🔥@CoachSonnyDykes is building something special in Fort Worth#Big12FB x @TCUFootball pic.twitter.com/bJs6VQIYl8
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) October 26, 2022
Still, TCU’s FBS opponents are a combined 24-19 (.558 winning percentage). Guess what? That’s comparable to No. 1 Georgia’s resume (the Bulldogs’ six FBS opponents are a combined 23-21). TCU’s schedule strength is also better than No. 2 Ohio State’s (the Buckeyes’ opponents are a combined 25-27).
Will the Horned Frogs be viewed like those two teams? Of course not, because TCU is in the Big 12, not the SEC or Big Ten. It’s unfair, but it’s reality. Teams from the latter two conferences typically get more benefit of the doubt when discussing the nation’s elite. Recruiting and NFL Draft results play into that, because top-end teams from those two conferences typically sign more blue-chip recruits and thus put more players into the draft.
The Big 12 is better top-to-bottom than it has been in a while and might be the deepest conference in the country. Hopefully the Horned Frogs get proper credit for that if they win the conference. Until then, all they can do is keep winning, because if they do that, they’ll be impossible to ignore.
Will Jimbo Fisher ever acknowledge that the offense has problems beyond “we are young” and “we are not executing?” Which coaches on his staff are most likely to take the fall for this offensive disaster? — Gary C.
We’ll find out in the offseason if he’s willing to acknowledge that major change is needed. I can imagine how tiring it gets for A&M fans to hear Fisher say “we’re close” every week, all while A&M puts out one of the worst offenses in the country despite recruiting top-flight talent. But it seems as if that’s what he’ll continue to say. I’m sure some of that is so that his players hear him have their backs publicly. As futile as the Aggies have been, confidence must be tenuous.
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As for staff changes, everything should be on the table. Fisher must take a long, hard look at himself, because this is his offense. He runs it and calls the plays. Will he be willing to cede control of it or at least bring in some fresh perspective that can elicit better results, like when LSU brought in Joe Brady in 2019? I’ll believe it when I see it.
During an A&M in-house live stream on Thursday, athletic director Ross Bjork hinted that Fisher is willing to at least examine the offensive issues in the offseason.
“He has already said ‘Hey, look, we will analyze everything,’” Bjork said. “But we’re also trying to win games right now. We’re trying to win these last five games, and we’re committing everything we have to work hard to put the players in the best position for this year.
“It has not gone like we planned, obviously. We do not want to be where we are.”
UTSA is doing great with Frank Harris and will probably win the conference. If he doesn’t return next season, how well do you think it’ll do with the other QBs on the roster next season? — Joaquin V., Houston
First, kudos to the Roadrunners. They’ve been a fun watch again and are in great position to repeat as Conference USA champs, in large part because of Harris’ last-minute feats. He led winning touchdown drives against Army and North Texas, and he has become one of the most exciting quarterbacks to watch.
Harris, a sixth-year senior, has one extra year of eligibility left if he wants to use it (he had two season-ending injuries early in his career, plus the free NCAA eligibility year from 2020). It’s unclear what he’ll do, but his body has been through a lot.
If he doesn’t return, don’t be surprised to see UTSA look for an option in the transfer portal. If Texas backup quarterback Hudson Card became available, he would make a lot of sense. Will Stein, UTSA’s offensive coordinator, was Card’s offensive coordinator at Austin Lake Travis High. If a quarterback from another in-state Power 5 program, like Texas Tech, TCU or even Texas A&M, hit the portal, the Roadrunners would certainly be interested.
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Whoever UTSA brings in will compete with Harris’ current backup, redshirt freshman Eddie Lee Marburger, for the job. Marburger, from Mission, Texas, had a prolific high school career. The former three-star recruit threw for nearly 9,000 yards and ran for 2,381 at Sharyland Pioneer High. The UTSA staff likes his skill set, but he needs more reps. He has attempted 19 passes in his college career.
Need a third-party view on Blake Shapen. He has made some great throws but seems to be a little reckless and doesn’t seem to have a pass-rush clock. Will these end up being early learning moments he improves on, or is this his style of play that will lead Baylor to struggle with better competition? — Brent F.
Shapen will improve in due time. Remember, he has only nine collegiate starts. This is his first full season as a starter. Baylor had a ton of turnover at the offensive skill positions. Some growing pains are to be expected.
His ball security and decision-making need improvement. The recklessness you reference is part of his appeal. Shapen has the confidence to make throws that others might not. From the time he arrived, that was something coaches noticed about him. When I visited Baylor last year, the common refrain from the staff was that he can make a highlight-worthy play in one moment then make a throw that makes you shake your head the next.
It’s a fine line to walk, but the coaches felt his upside was worth that risk. It results in some really impressive throws, like the one he made to Monaray Baldwin against Oklahoma State when the receiver had two defenders nearby.
THIS WAS AN ABSOLUTE DIME 🔥🎯
Blake Shapen finds Monaray Baldwin for a @BUFootball TD 👏 pic.twitter.com/BSQ5K6OEIk
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 1, 2022
On the flip side, there will be times he tries to do too much, like when he tried to get rid of the ball with Kansas defensive end Jereme Robinson in pursuit. Instead of taking the sack and living to play another down while up 28-3 on Saturday, Shapen tried to make a play while in Robinson’s grasp and fumbled it away. It helped spark a Kansas comeback that could have turned disastrous, but the Bears held on for the win.
Big play from the big fella 💪 @jereme_robinson pic.twitter.com/6IHu0OS1eJ
— Kansas Football (@KU_Football) October 24, 2022
Shapen is a talented quarterback who just needs a little more seasoning. He was really starting to hit his stride before he suffered a concussion at West Virginia. He’s got a gifted guy behind him in Kyron Drones, with a staff that has shown that it doesn’t mind making a bold change if needed.
How much should we read into Texas Tech absolutely curb stomping West Virginia? Have the Red Raiders improved that much, or are the Mountaineers just that bad? — Andrew G., Fort Worth
West Virginia’s defense is bad. Let’s just start there. The Mountaineers are last in the Big 12 in average points allowed (33.7) and last in yards per play (6.04). They allow 3.04 points per drive and are 125th nationally in stop rate.
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But Texas Tech is trending up. The Red Raiders have topped 500 offensive yards and run more than 100 plays since Behren Morton took over as starting quarterback. They’re undefeated at home and seem to be playing with a ton of confidence.
This weekend’s showdown with Baylor, coach Joey McGuire’s former team, should be telling. If Texas Tech can win that game, finishing 8-4 is achievable, well above preseason expectations. The Red Raiders were ninth in the preseason Big 12 media poll, with a tough nonconference schedule tempering expectations.
But given where they are now, they feel like a shoo-in to make a bowl and could be better than that.
Lone Star 12
TCU maintains a firm grip on the top spot. A home win over Baylor would be enough to push Texas Tech above the Longhorns for the No. 2 spot since the Red Raiders have the head-to-head victory. UTSA is riding a five-game winning streak since its loss to Texas. The Aggies are sliding entering a critical stretch.
In the bottom half, Rice continues to be a pleasant surprise, with its 42-41 overtime win against Louisiana Tech a huge step toward bowl eligibility.
(Photo of Arch Manning: Tim Warner / Getty Images)
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